Samsung Electronics Reclaims “₩90,000 Club” — Can the Rally Continue After Chuseok?

 For the first time in nearly five years, Samsung Electronics has officially reclaimed the so-called “₩90,000 club.”

This long-awaited milestone has rekindled optimism among investors who have endured years of sluggish performance in the tech giant’s stock. As the company prepares to announce its preliminary third-quarter earnings on October 14, the market is buzzing with one key question:
Can Samsung Electronics sustain its upward momentum after the Chuseok holiday?

A Symbolic Breakthrough: Samsung Electronics Back Above ₩90,000

According to the Korea Exchange, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩89,000 on October 2, the last trading day before the Chuseok break.
During the session, the share price briefly hit ₩90,300, setting a new 52-week high and marking its first appearance above ₩90,000 since January 15, 2021, when it reached ₩91,800.

That means nearly four years and nine months have passed since investors last saw the figure “9” leading Samsung’s price ticker — a symbolic recovery that has revived enthusiasm across both institutional and retail markets.

The term “₩90,000 club” (9man-jeonja) has become more than a nickname; it represents a psychological threshold that defines investor confidence in Korea’s largest listed company.
Crossing it again signals that the semiconductor cycle may finally be turning upward.

Why the Market Is Turning Bullish Again

Several key catalysts have aligned to fuel Samsung’s rebound:

  1. A brightening semiconductor outlook — global chip demand is rebounding, particularly in AI-driven memory segments such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM).

  2. Growing expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut — easing monetary conditions tend to boost tech valuations worldwide.

  3. Stronger U.S. mega-cap tech stocks — the rally in companies like Nvidia and AMD is spilling over to memory suppliers and foundries in Asia.

  4. A re-rating of earnings expectations — analysts have steadily raised Samsung’s profit forecasts for the third quarter.

According to FnGuide, the market consensus for Samsung’s third-quarter operating profit stands at ₩9.71 trillion, up from ₩8.79 trillion just a month earlier — a jump of nearly ₩920 billion in revised expectations.

This sharp revision underscores a shifting sentiment: investors are once again betting on a semiconductor “super-cycle” — a period of prolonged demand growth and price recovery across the chip industry.

From “₩50,000 Club” Pain to Hopeful Revival

To appreciate the current optimism, it helps to remember how bleak things looked just a year ago.

In November 2022, Samsung Electronics’ shares plunged to ₩49,900, tumbling below ₩50,000 for the first time in years.
That represented a 43.8% decline from the previous year’s high of ₩88,800.
At the time, fear of a U.S. recession and collapsing memory prices drove massive outflows, leaving many retail investors deeply underwater.

The once-mighty stock that symbolized South Korea’s economic strength had become a cautionary tale.
But the market cycle, as always, eventually turns.
Since early 2024, signs of stabilization in DRAM and NAND prices — combined with strategic production cuts by major memory makers — have helped rebalance supply and demand.

By mid-2025, that long-awaited inflection point finally arrived.
Now, the narrative has shifted from survival to expansion.

Earnings Momentum: What Analysts Expect in Q3

Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary Q3 results on October 14, and expectations are high.

Most analysts forecast that both revenue and profit will exceed market consensus.
Let’s break down a few prominent outlooks from top brokerage firms:

Korea Investment & Securities: Target ₩120,000 (+26%)

Korea Investment & Securities recently raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to ₩120,000, up 26% from the previous level, while maintaining a “Buy” recommendation.

Researcher Min-Sook Chae projects third- and fourth-quarter revenue of ₩82.4 trillion, up 4% year-on-year, and operating profit of ₩10.5 trillion, a 15% increase versus last year.
That would easily beat current consensus.

She highlighted Samsung’s technological lead in HBM3E 12-high (12Hi) memory for Nvidia GPUs, saying the company has resolved much of its HBM risk exposure and is positioned for robust margin expansion:

“With the certification of the fifth-generation HBM3E 12Hi stack product for Nvidia, Samsung’s competitiveness in high-performance memory has been validated.
We expect growing HBM sales to gradually narrow the profitability gap with competitors.”

Shinhan Investment Corp.: Target ₩115,000

Shinhan Investment Corp. echoed the upbeat tone, setting a target price of ₩115,000.
Analyst Hyung-Tae Kim expects Q3 operating profit of ₩10.1 trillion, exceeding market consensus.

He noted that the major drag factors of the past year — weak foundry utilization and concerns about HBM yield — are now easing.
Additionally, the broader memory market is recovering faster than expected, paving the way for industry-wide benefits.

“Samsung has entered a phase where worries about its foundry and HBM businesses are subsiding.
As general memory prices rebound, the company stands to capture gains across multiple product lines.”

KB Securities: Target ₩110,000, Top Pick in Semiconductors

KB Securities also reaffirmed its “Buy” rating with a price target of ₩110,000, naming Samsung Electronics its top pick in the semiconductor sector.
Analyst Dong-Won Kim argues that Samsung is entering a long-term earnings upcycle for the first time in nine years.

He points to a structural shift in the DRAM market:
limited new capacity, increasing server-memory replacement demand, and higher productivity from 1c DRAM processes.
Together, these factors could lead to a prolonged shortage and rising prices.

“Following three years of HBM-focused investments, general DRAM production capacity remains constrained.
Combined with server-DRAM replacement demand, we expect an extended period of supply tightness and higher prices.
Samsung’s improved productivity in 1c DRAM and its diversified supply of HBM4 to Nvidia in 2026 will be key earnings drivers.”

The Role of HBM in Samsung’s Comeback

HBM — or High-Bandwidth Memory — has become the cornerstone of Samsung’s growth story.
The surge in AI computing, led by Nvidia, AMD, and other GPU makers, requires ultra-fast, energy-efficient memory that can process massive datasets in real time.

Samsung’s successful validation of HBM3E 12-layer stacks has addressed investor worries about yield and reliability.
It also positions the company as a credible alternative to SK Hynix, which had dominated the early HBM market.

HBM’s profit margins are 2 to 3 times higher than those of standard DRAM chips.
As global AI infrastructure spending accelerates — from cloud servers to data centers — Samsung’s ability to capture this premium segment could redefine its earnings structure over the next several years.

Macro Tailwinds: Why Timing Matters

Beyond Samsung’s internal improvements, macroeconomic forces are also providing a lift.

  • Interest-Rate Cuts: The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting rates soon, relieving valuation pressure on global growth stocks.

  • AI Investment Boom: Corporate spending on AI training infrastructure — from hyperscale data centers to enterprise solutions — continues to soar.

  • Korean Export Recovery: As semiconductor exports rebound, South Korea’s trade balance has turned positive, improving investor sentiment in the KOSPI index.

These dynamics have created a “risk-on” environment that favors technology leaders like Samsung Electronics.

Investor Sentiment and Technical Outlook

On the technical chart, Samsung’s breakout above ₩90,000 represents a key resistance turn-support level.
If momentum continues, analysts identify the next resistance zone around ₩95,000 – ₩100,000.
Conversely, failure to hold above ₩88,000 could invite short-term profit-taking.

Institutional investors have been net buyers in recent sessions, signaling renewed confidence ahead of earnings season.
Retail investors, many of whom endured years of stagnation, are cautiously optimistic but watching closely for confirmation from Q3 results.

Challenges That Still Linger

Despite the upbeat forecasts, several risks remain:

  1. Global Demand Uncertainty: A slowdown in consumer electronics or PC sales could limit recovery in NAND flash.

  2. Foundry Competition: Taiwan’s TSMC remains dominant in advanced node foundry services, and Samsung must prove it can close the technology gap.

  3. Currency Fluctuations: A strong Korean won could erode export profitability.

  4. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing trade frictions between the U.S. and China continue to cloud supply-chain stability.

Still, most market participants believe the downside risks are already priced in, while the upside potential from HBM and DRAM pricing remains substantial.

Long-Term Perspective: A New Chapter for Samsung

Looking beyond short-term price swings, Samsung Electronics appears poised for a multi-year profit-expansion cycle — something it hasn’t experienced since 2016.

Back then, the company’s strong DRAM and OLED performance fueled an earnings surge that lifted the entire KOSPI index.
Now, history could be repeating itself, only this time with AI-driven memory at the center of growth.

If analysts’ projections hold, Samsung could post double-digit operating margins by 2026, driven by HBM leadership, DRAM efficiency gains, and new demand from AI servers and autonomous systems.

The narrative has shifted decisively: from defensive restructuring to offensive innovation.

Will Samsung Maintain the “₩90,000 Club”?

As the Chuseok holiday ends and the new trading week begins, investors are watching for follow-through buying momentum.
Whether Samsung can maintain its place above ₩90,000 will depend largely on the tone of its October 14 earnings preview.

A strong beat could validate analysts’ optimism and spark institutional inflows, potentially pushing the stock toward ₩100,000.
However, if results disappoint or guidance remains cautious, short-term consolidation may follow.

Either way, the long-term fundamentals appear stronger than they have been in years.
With the semiconductor cycle turning and AI demand expanding, Samsung Electronics has re-entered the spotlight as Korea’s flagship growth story.

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